Where are the Baker Lake Sockeye?

[salmonkiller]

I was planning on heading up there on Saturday for a few days......... but oh man....... this is sad....

[beeman]

5 year average should see us getting around 500 a day by now, either showing up late or going to be another crappy year.
Starting to think the Japanese Nuclear reactor accident is doing more damage than they are admitting, pretty much every salmon run is getting impacted.

[Sideburns]

hmmm... interesting thought.

[Hunter757]

Maybe they all headed to lake WA....lol. Also remember the river is going to be netted on July 6 and 7th so that will not help opening day one bit. I have to ask why they kept so many of the first fish that showed up? Is it so they can give the eggs away to help start a run else where? I don't remember them keeping that many right out of the start. But do feel sorry for all the guys who are up there hoping to find mass fish.......let hope they make it soon.

[Jakefish]

Nope, the netting day was changed to the 5th - it already passed. Looks like the numbers are steadily picking up - 645 fish yesterday - should be over 1,000 per day by Sunday. It will be a slow opener tomorrow with only 1,000 fish in the lake, but I'm confident things are moving in the right direction. Er, I mean, no it's going to be a disaster this year so everyone should cancel their camping reservations!

[salmonkiller]

Changed my plans...

Gonna head up there July 23rd for 3 days of fishing.

Then heading back up there July 30th for 3 days of fishing..

And it Looks like Lake Wenatchee is not going to open up this year so i will be heading back to Baker for a 3rd time Aug 6th for 3 days of fishing......

[Mike Carey]

Don't write it off yet. I remember a couple years back there were only 213 transferred to the lake by opening day and we caught 4 fish. Those first few days the fish can be super aggresive.

Go for it!

[Racer]

I was up there last weekend and came home with four. They are spread throughout the lake from dam to Noisy.

[rseas]

A number have offered to hitch a ride in my fish box...

[Jakefish]

Wow, trap numbers have really dropped off. I wonder how long it will be until the downgrade their forecast of 47,000 fish?

[riverhunter]

Tribal netting might have caused the numbers to drop but even then I have been skeptical of the forecast. Seems like every year they have been forecasting higher number then what actually show up

[Jakefish]

Yeah, I don't think there's any way the tribes have netted 20,000 plus sockeye this year.

[riverhunter]

Yeah, I don't think there's any way the tribes have netted 20,000 plus sockeye this year.

Wasn't referring to them netting the remainder of the forecasted fish but rather how the numbers have dropped the last 2 days drastically could have been caused by netting. Might jump back up but even then I don't see reaching the 47000 they claimed

[rseas]

So..., I'm wondering. Forecast is for 47,000 fish. Less 50% for the various tribes = 23,500 available for escapement and the sports fishery. With 3 or 4 weeks to go the count is at 12,434 sockeye. If they were able to trap an average of 395 fish a day through the end of the run they would still hit the forecast, maybe even exceed it. We will see!

I still say the problem with the fishery this year is the conditions. With the heavy snowpack the subsurface temperature is cold. The fish are not very aggressive and holding in different areas. Think warm water...

[4n6fisher]

I thought the 47K was the amount of fish actually returning to Baker. With less than 100 per fish that last couple days looking poor (probably the delay from the last days they were netted), either way. Still struggle to understand how the commercials and/or tribes are allowed 50% of estimated runs (before any runs counts), but sportsfishers get cut off as soon as they notice a short run.
How do they even know how many fish are netted? I never see any of that data to compare to trap numbers.
Last year run fell well below estimate as well, I would like to see a comparison on how many fish they estimate were caught by sportsfishers compared to tribes/commercial. Does it even come close to a 50-50 split?

[Jakefish]

I thought the 47K was the amount of fish actually returning to Baker. With less than 100 per fish that last couple days looking poor (probably the delay from the last days they were netted), either way. Still struggle to understand how the commercials and/or tribes are allowed 50% of estimated runs (before any runs counts), but sportsfishers get cut off as soon as they notice a short run.
How do they even know how many fish are netted? I never see any of that data to compare to trap numbers.
Last year run fell well below estimate as well, I would like to see a comparison on how many fish they estimate were caught by sportsfishers compared to tribes/commercial. Does it even come close to a 50-50 split?

The 47k is the total run predicted to return to the river. The tribes get 50% of the total allowable catch (TAC), but I can't find that number right now - it may have been in the North of Falcon documents published earlier this year, but I can't find them. TAC is normally calculated by deducting the intended escapement (or brood stock requirement) from the total estimated run, minus some % for inaccuracy in the prediction. This run is somewhat unique in that WDFW knows precisely how many fish return to the baker river, even if they are "wild" fish that were spawned naturally in the lake.

[rseas]

Another thing to consider; we are on something like 40 days with no measurable percipitation. Through June and July we usually have brief but intense periods of rain. There are a ton of fish in the salt off Ala Spit and Snee-oosh Beach. Also the 8-1 crabbers I know are seeing huge schools of salmon on the meter while crabbing. I am hoping that the fish are still holding in the salt waiting for some rain. To make lemonade out of lemons; if they are still holding in the salt we will have a better quality of fish available in Baker Lake during August.

[Hunter757]

rseas, could all those fish holding be pinks? I surely hope the run improves as we are heading up soon and I am like you try and stay positive!!!

[Jakefish]

Another thing to consider; we are on something like 40 days with no measurable percipitation. Through June and July we usually have brief but intense periods of rain. There are a ton of fish in the salt off Ala Spit and Snee-oosh Beach. Also the 8-1 crabbers I know are seeing huge schools of salmon on the meter while crabbing. I am hoping that the fish are still holding in the salt waiting for some rain. To make lemonade out of lemons; if they are still holding in the salt we will have a better quality of fish available in Baker Lake during August.

I hope there is still a good push of fish to come. I'm waiting to see how the derby goes next weekend before I commit to heading up there to try this fishery for the first time (I figure the busiest weekend on the lake isn't a good time to try to figure things out). Looking back at the past 2 years, and especially 2 years ago, the river was much lower and we had a much longer dry spell, yet more fish still made it up to the lake. At least the return this year is already better than the return for the brood year (2013). I wonder if any of these fish have strayed to lake WA.

[rseas]

Possibly but the fish that I've seen jumping at Ala Spit and off the beach at Snee-oosh are sockeye.

I/we'll be up at Baker for 4 or 5 days this week so I'll try to get a comprehenive report out Monday or Tuesday next week.